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The aim was to link energy demand and supply side by taking
into account the identified options of RES and RUE integration up to
2010 and 2020.
The establishment of the scenarios was formulated on the basis of the
established energy demand, the available RES potential, the analysed
technical issues and the non-technical and legislative issues. Moreover,
the investor’s interest, the maturity and cost-effectiveness of the
technologies and the public attitude have been also considered.
The first scenario named “Baseline Scenario” is an attempt to estimate
the RES penetration in the energy system of Cyprus as expected until
2010 without any special policies implemented. This means that very low
implementation of RES and RUE is expected. This scenario is to be used
as a point of reference in the evaluation procedure.
The second scenario named “Implementation of existing policies
scenario”, as its name indicates, estimates the expected RES penetration
if the existing policies will be implemented. The approved funds have
been also taken into consideration.
The third scenario named “Advanced Policies scenario”, investigates the
possibility of increase the RES penetration by the implementation of new
advanced policies, in order to achieve the established targets. It
should be noted that this scenario has been formulated on a basis:
“Which should be the RES and RUE integration in the energy system and
which additional advanced policies should be established in order to
achieve the established targets?”
Rationale of the establishment of scenarios
At first the most cost-effective energy saving measures are adopted in
order to minimize energy requirements that will be met through active
systems. Three scenarios of different degree of RUE integration have
been established.
Secondly, the most mature and cost-effective RES technologies that are
possible to be accommodated in the energy system without serious
interventions in the existing infrastructure are introduced in order to
maximize the contribution of RES.
The scenarios were established on the basis of:
the forecasted energy
demand,
the available RES potential and the technical constraints for RES
penetration
the investor’s interest,
the maturity and
cost-effectiveness of the technologies
the under-development
legislative framework
the positive public attitude.
in order to:
Cover the additional electricity demand in a sustainable way
Cover the maximum average net hourly production
Provide the electrical
system with an adequate safety margin
Minimum interventions to the
existing grid
Use the most mature and cost-effective RES technologies
Selection among possible alternatives depends on the following
parameters:
Social acceptance
Technical reliability
Sources availability
Economic effectiveness
Environmental protection
The objectives are:
to cover the electricity demand in a sustainable way,
to cover the
maximum average net hourly production,
to provide the electrical
system with an adequate safety margin,
to exploit the available
renewable energy sources of each community,
to use the most mature and cost-effective RES technologies
The analysis includes the following tasks:
Paths of energy demand evolution defined on the phase of analysis of
energy system of Cyprus
Paths of RUE measures and RES penetration in
the supply side
Matching demand and supply side
Indicators
characterizing scenarios
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